Fortinet plunges 23% on lowered full-year guidance; Prompts several downgrades

(Updated – November 3, 2023 5:52 AM EDT)

Fortinet’s (FTNT) fourth-quarter forecasts for billings and revenue fell short of the average analyst estimate, pushing shares over 23% lower in pre-market Friday.

For the upcoming year, Fortinet (NASDAQ:) anticipates revenue in the range of $5.27 billion to $5.33 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expected to fall within the range of $1.54 to $1.56. Analysts were looking for $5.4 billion in FY sales and $1.51 in earnings per share.

The billings forecast ranges from $6.10 billion to $6.24 billion, which is lower than the previously projected range of $6.49 billion to $6.59 billion. The consensus estimate stood at $6.54 billion.

“While the Secure Networking market is experiencing slower growth as product demand returns to normal levels following two years of elevated growth, we are leveraging our scale, go-to-market capabilities and engineering expertise to focus our attention on the faster growing SASE and Security Operations markets, in addition to continuing our focus on Secure Networking,” said Ken Xie, Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Fortinet.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Fortinet foresees adjusted EPS in the range of 42 cents to 44 cents, just ahead of the estimate of 42 cents. The revenue projection for this period spans from $1.38 billion to $1.44 billion, missing the consensus of $1.5 billion.

Moreover, billings are estimated to be between $1.56 billion and $1.70 billion, way below the estimate of $1.91 billion.

In the third quarter, Fortinet reported adjusted earnings per share of 41 cents, surpassing the estimated 36 cents. The company’s billings for the period reached $1.49 billion, representing a 5.7% increase compared to the previous year, although slightly below the estimated $1.59 billion.

Fortinet’s revenue in the third quarter amounted to $1.33 billion, up 16% YoY, although it fell just short of the estimated $1.35 billion.

At least 6 Wall Street brokerages lowered their recommendations on the cybersecurity stock.

JPMorgan analysts cut the rating to Neutral from Overweight.

“We think we could see risk to multiples as investors continue to digest the impact of this cycle. As a result, we are moving to a Neutral rating on unfavorable risk-reward,” the analysts wrote.

Similarly, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald moved to Neutral rating.

“We believe the combination of product/appliance headwinds, change in sales to focus on software, and buildout of new technologies targeting growth areas will create a more-mixed narrative and create a headwind for the stock over the next 6-9 months,” the analysts said.