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Ireland’s general election delivered an early surprise on Friday as Sinn Féin, the pro-reunification party, emerged with a narrow lead in an exit poll.
But the country’s main opposition party, which had rattled business leaders in the campaign with promises of policy changes, tax cuts and spending pledges, looked set to struggle to form a government, compared with the combined forces of outgoing partners Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, who were only slightly behind.
Sinn Féin won 21.1 per cent of first preference votes under Ireland’s proportional representation system, according to the exit poll conducted by Ipsos B&A; the conservative Fine Gael was on 21 per cent and centrist party Fianna Fáil had 19.5 per cent in the same survey.
Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin’s director of elections, called it a “phenomenal result” for the nationalist party, which won the most first-preference votes at the last election in 2020, but has plummeted in the polls in the past year.
“Sinn Féin may emerge from these elections as the largest political party,” he told Irish public broadcaster RTÉ.
The result was unexpected since Prime Minister Simon Harris’s conservative Fine Gael — which has been in office since 2011 and is seeking a record fourth consecutive term — had been falling in opinion polls after a series of campaign mis-steps, and had been in third place going into the election. Fianna Fáil had been seen as being ahead of Sinn Féin in first place.
Longtime rivals before teaming up in government in 2020, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil had warned voters of the dangers of turfing them out given the risk of transatlantic trade shocks under a new term for Donald Trump.
Ireland has built its economic model on attracting foreign investment, including major US tech and pharma giants, whose huge corporation taxes have delivered eye-popping surpluses that could be at risk if the US president-elect follows through on tax and tariff threats.
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have vehemently ruled out any coalition with Sinn Féin, which was once the mouthpiece of IRA paramilitaries in Northern Ireland’s Troubles conflict. This would make its path to power complicated even if it emerges as the country’s most popular party.
Gary Murphy, politics professor at Dublin City University, said “on these numbers, a continuation of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and one other looks the most likely”.
But Aidan Regan, a professor of political economy at University College Dublin, wrote on social media platform X that “It will take four parties to form a stable government” given Ireland’s increasing political fragmentation.
Fianna Fáil’s director of elections, Jack Chambers, looked unperturbed.
“It’s all in the margin of error,” he told RTÉ. “It’s a three-way race now.” The exit poll had a margin of error of 1.4 per cent.
Damien English of Fine Gael called his party’s result “a very solid performance . . . Hopefully tomorrow will bring us even better news.”
Vote counting begins on Saturday.
Under Ireland’s proportional representation system, voters rank candidates according to their preference. As such, the way that lower-preference votes are transferred between parties will determine the final outcome.
According to the exit poll, which was carried out on behalf of the Irish Times, broadcasters RTÉ and TG4 and Trinity College Dublin, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael both scored 20 per cent of second-preference votes, ahead of Sinn Féin on 17 per cent.
Carthy said that if Sinn Féin’s lead was confirmed, there would be an “obligation” on other parties to “reflect on the new make-up of the Dáil [lower house of parliament]”.
Sinn Féin had campaigned to oust the two parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century and deliver sweeping change to end the country’s housing crisis.
But Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be eyeing potential junior partners among the smaller parties in a bid to secure the 88 seats needed to form a government.
The small leftist Social Democrats party scored 5.8 per cent; Labour had 5 per cent. The Green party, the junior member of the outgoing coalition, had 4 per cent, according to the exit poll. Independents also polled strongly.
Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns was unable to vote after giving birth on election day.
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