Ana Boata of Allianz (ETR:) Trade warned in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday of a potential surge in oil prices due to possible escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas, which could lead to a wider Middle East conflict. The potential conflict could disrupt crude supplies, causing oil prices to increase from $90 to a peak of $140 per barrel and averaging at $120 next year.
The steep rise in oil prices would result in severe human and economic costs. Central banks might adopt a wait-and-see approach before reducing interest rates due to the higher energy prices. This could potentially lead to faster inflation and weaker economic growth and might trigger a global recession, slowing growth to around 2%, close to contraction levels.
The boat drew comparisons with the 2012 sovereign crisis, highlighting increased sovereign risks associated with such a scenario. She noted that governments lack clear strategies for adjusting their public finances amidst such a crisis.
These concerns about the potential impact on oil were also shared by Christine Lagarde, chief of the European Central Bank, and officials from the International Monetary Fund. Boats also pointed out that real interest rates are significantly higher than growth.
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