The number of available jobs in the US shrank more than expected in July, an indication that demand for workers continues to wane amid a cooling labor market.
Job openings fell in July for the second consecutive month to an estimated 7.67 million, from 7.91 million in June, according to new data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
That’s the lowest number of openings since January 2021.
Economists were expecting that the July postings would total 8.1 million, according to FactSet consensus estimates.
Wednesday’s data is the first in a series of critically important economic metrics released this week about the US labor market, culminating with the Friday jobs report. With a hotly anticipated rate cut just two weeks away, Wall Street and Main Street are intently focused on whether a weakening labor market could mean a jumbo-sized cut.
Job openings, which serve as a measurement of labor demand, have come down significantly from their record highs when the US economy was roaring back from the pandemic and the need for workers outstripped the immediately available supply.
As the labor market has slowed, it’s come back into balance: There are now nearly 1.1 jobs available for every person looking for one. That ratio hasn’t been this slim in more than three years.
Although the easing of job gains is something that has been expected, fears have grown recently that the labor market isn’t simply bending under the weight of Federal Reserve inflation-busting interest hikes — but it’s actually breaking.
The monthly jobs report for July showed gains of just 114,000 — far below expectations — and the unemployment rate shot to 4.3% from 4.1%. Separately, annual labor market data revisions showed job gains for the year ending March 2024 were less robust than initially thought.
Concurrently, inflation has greatly subsided, putting the Federal Reserve just weeks away from what is likely the first interest rate cut since the central bank began its inflation-busting tightening cycle more than two years ago, all eyes are on the slew of labor market data being released this week.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report, although more backward-looking than most of the data, provides a critical look at the churn within the labor market and whether turnover remains at healthy levels.
In July, hiring activity picked up after having plummeted the month before, with 5.52 million hires versus 5.25 million; and the number of people voluntarily quitting their job held fairly steady at 3.28 million versus 3.21 million in June.
While openings, hires and quits show a labor market that’s on stable ground, Wednesday’s JOLTS report wasn’t free of red flags: Layoffs and discharges spiked in July to 1.76 million, the highest monthly level since spring of last year, when tech layoffs were surging.
Despite the leap, the layoffs rate remained within the range seen during the past year and below historical averages, BLS data shows.
This story is developing and will be updated.
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